The Conjecturer

Far from a miscarriage of justice, the Syria veto is a stark reminder that unprincipled decisions about a strategic backwater – awful as Gaddafi’s crackdown on the rebels could have been, Libya is not central to U.S. national interests – have resulted in the loss of leverage with Russia and China regarding a Syrian intervention. Both countries had already suffered losses to their respective national interests from the Libyan campaign – not catastrophic but worrying nonetheless – so it’s not surprising that they dug in their heels over Syria, where the stakes are much higher…


The U.S. and its allies have ignored the geopolitics of Syria and of intervention more broadly. It’s of course possible that Russia could have never been brought around to accepting action in Syria; China, however, very likely could have been if the West hadn’t behaved so irresponsibly in its rush to depose Gaddafi. And now that the west – the U.S. in particular – has nothing left to bargain with, Russia can act with impunity.

Another look at the politics of the failed Syria vote, over at PBS.